Forecast: Scattered storms with more clouds today, only afternoon storms this weekend

9:48 AM, Aug 16, 2013   |    comments
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Video: Tracking the Tropics: Friday, Aug. 16, 2013

Tampa Bay Area Radar
Tampa Bay Radar
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We are seeing a  mix of sun and clouds across the area this morning along with a few small rain showers.  We will tend to see more clouds than sun today as we heat up and more widespread showers and storms are possible alter this afternoon.  Tropical moisture is moving through today, meaning some of those showers will bring heavy downpours. The weekend gets back to normal with only afternoon storms.

Tropics: 92L in the southern Gulf of Mexico is very unorganized.  Rains from this system will drift north through the area today and will drop heavy rains across parts of the Florida panhandle and gulf coast late tonight and tomorrow.  Models drift the center NNW toward the gulf coast between Texas and Louisiana.  The NHC still has a 50% chance for this system to become a tropical storm within the next 2 days.  The low level center has now come off of the Yucatan peninsula, is back out over warm water and may even be shifting a little morth of the old center.  Early morning visible satellite imagery seems to show an organizing storm.  This needs to be watched.

Rain fall will mainly be on the east side of the center for now.  Fortunately for us, the heaviest rains will be to our west and affect the panhandle of Florida through Louisiana.  If the storms strengthens, it should consolidate the rainfall closer to the center of the storm.  Most models have this near the gulf coast by Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Erin is struggling as well.  It is over marginal water temperatures and the current forecast does not call for strengthening beyond 50 mph.  It is still in the far eastern Atlantic and not a threat to Florida.

Today: Mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers and storms 60%.  The rain will be heavy at times with localized flooding conditions possible.  Winds will be SSW 10 mph with highs in the upper 80s.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies with a few showers and storms, mainly along the coast 30%.  Winds will be light from the south.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies with afternoon showers and storms 40%.  Winds will turn ESE 10 mph blowing the storms back toward the coast late in the afternoon.  Highs will top out near 91.

Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with afternoon showers and storms 40%. Winds will be ESE 10 mph with highs near 92.

Meteorologist Bobby Deskins

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